Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 282 Southwest	DAL 11:20	PNS 13:10	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1759 Southwest	DAL 13:51	PNS 15:36	15%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DAL 06:05 → ATL 09:17DL 516	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	6h 55m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	DAL 11:58 → ATL 15:12DL 441	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	5h 05m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807	4h 51m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → PNS 20:58DL 3021	4h 59m	94%	76%
Southwest Details →	DAL 14:00 → HOU 15:15WN 31	3h 05m Houston	HOU 18:20 → PNS 20:01WN 4433	6h 01m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON