Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 4256 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 4256 DAL 06:45 → BWI 10:48 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2595 DAL 16:53 → DCA 20:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4256 Southwest	DAL 06:45	BWI 10:48	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2175 Southwest	DAL 06:05	DCA 10:06	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4677 Southwest	DAL 08:25	BWI 12:28	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1618 American Flight history →	DFW 05:02	DCA 09:03	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DFW 07:02	DCA 10:59	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	DCA 12:42	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 2399 American	DFW 09:38	DCA 13:49	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:16	IAD 14:31	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 4031 Southwest	DAL 11:31	BWI 15:31	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 597 Southwest	DAL 10:19	DCA 14:27	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DFW 11:54	DCA 15:59	11%	3%	0.6%	70%
AA 2669 American	DFW 10:43	BWI 14:51	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4037 Southwest	DAL 14:56	BWI 18:58	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 1476 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:19	BWI 11:47	12%	3%	0.7%	73%
WN 418 Southwest	DAL 13:02	BWI 17:01	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	13%	4%	0.6%	79%
F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:30	IAD 15:42	13%	5%	0.7%	84%
WN 1260 Southwest	DAL 16:42	BWI 20:46	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2254 American	DFW 16:18	IAD 20:25	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2520 American	DFW 14:53	DCA 18:53	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2077 American Flight history →	DFW 20:00	DCA 23:59	15%	4%	0.7%	64%
AA 2752 American Flight history →	DFW 18:52	DCA 22:59	16%	4%	0.7%	62%
AA 472 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	DCA 21:31	16%	5%	0.7%	65%
WN 172 Southwest	DAL 14:21	DCA 18:17	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1267 Southwest	DAL 19:12	DCA 23:07	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	BWI 21:29	19%	6%	0.7%	62%
WN 2595 Southwest	DAL 16:53	DCA 20:50	23%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON