Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1388 DCA 06:11 → BNA 06:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5085 DCA 09:19 → BNA 10:26 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1388 Southwest	DCA 06:11	BNA 06:55	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 5708 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 10:55	BNA 12:03	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
YX 4356 Republic	DCA 07:11	BNA 08:23	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1009 Southwest	DCA 10:54	BNA 11:40	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 5707 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:59	BNA 22:02	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 5777 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:10	BNA 16:15	9%	2%	0.6%	76%
YX 4367 Republic	DCA 18:09	BNA 19:15	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1503 Southwest	DCA 12:59	BNA 13:45	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
MQ 4276 Envoy	DCA 14:10	BNA 15:05	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1390 Southwest	DCA 15:50	BNA 16:34	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2843 Southwest	DCA 19:35	BNA 20:17	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5085 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DCA 09:19	BNA 10:26	13%	3%	0.8%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON