Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3891 DCA 08:57 → CHS 10:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1040 DCA 18:13 → CHS 20:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3891 Envoy	DCA 08:57	CHS 10:54	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
OH 5194 PSA	DCA 11:41	CHS 13:29	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5566 PSA	DCA 14:24	CHS 16:14	15%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 1040 American Flight history →	DCA 18:13	CHS 20:04	19%	8%	0.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON