Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1450 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1450 DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OH 5411 DCA 20:38 → IAH 22:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
YV 4004 Mesa	DCA 14:39	IAH 17:19	11%	5%	1.2%	no record
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:59	IAH 15:18	12%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	13%	4%	0.6%	73%
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:27	14%	5%	0.6%	66%
OH 5496 PSA	DCA 07:40	IAH 10:05	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5458 PSA	DCA 13:40	IAH 16:03	20%	7%	0.8%	no record
OH 5591 PSA	DCA 13:49	IAH 16:16	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
OH 5411 PSA	DCA 20:38	IAH 22:50	25%	8%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON