Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 11–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4444 DCA 15:39 → MEM 17:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 2953 DCA 08:30 → MEM 10:13 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4444 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:39	MEM 17:09	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 4497 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 15:41	MEM 16:58	11%	3%	0.6%	86%
AA 4681 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 20:40	MEM 22:15	11%	3%	0.7%	69%
MQ 3430 Envoy	DCA 08:13	MEM 09:43	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3928 Envoy	DCA 20:12	MEM 21:36	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2953 American	DCA 08:30	MEM 10:13	15%	4%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON