Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:45, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820	2h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	9h 05m	98%	94%
Delta Details →	DCA 17:47 → RDU 19:21DL 5322 · flown by Endeavor	2h 11m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 21:32 → OAK 00:04 +1DL 8947	9h 17m	91%	84%
Alaska Details →	DCA 08:00 → SEA 10:58AS 1	1h 19m Seattle	SEA 12:17 → OAK 14:19AS 533	9h 19m	94%	74%
Alaska Details →	DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3	58m Seattle	SEA 20:57 → OAK 22:46AS 706	8h 46m	88%	66%
Alaska Details →	DCA 11:14 → SAN 13:10AS 15	3h 45m San Diego	SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	10h 19m	100%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON