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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, YX 4400 at 11:03, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 4400 Republic DCA 11:03 TVC 13:12 11% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:45 → ORD 08:57AA 2633 3h 16m Chicago ORD 12:13 → TVC 14:29AA 4307 · flown by Envoy 6h 44m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 2h 49m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → DCA 06:08 → CLT 07:40AA 1521 3h 16m Charlotte CLT 10:56 → TVC 13:12AA 5575 · flown by PSA 7h 04m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → DCA 17:29 → DTW 19:15DL 1454 3h 44m Detroit DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424 6h 39m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → DTW 07:29DL 2869 2h 54m Detroit DTW 10:23 → TVC 11:34DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest 5h 34m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → DCA 07:35 → ORD 08:52AA 2304 2h 54m Chicago ORD 11:46 → TVC 14:04AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → DCA 14:00 → ORD 15:18UA 1888 3h 09m Chicago ORD 18:27 → TVC 20:41UA 677 6h 41m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654 3h 04m Chicago ORD 21:34 → TVC 23:46UA 2071 6h 41m 97% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON