Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4400
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 6
YX 4400 · DCA → TVC
departs 11:03 AM ET · arrives 1:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 23%
Tue 10/6
Wed 10/7 14%
Thu 10/8 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at TVC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TVC?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
11am departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TVC (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.