YX 4400 · DCA → TVC

departs 10:45 AM ET · arrives 1:01 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at TVC more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TVC?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into TVC at that hour are often late

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TVC

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.46 in

TVC (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4400 · DCA → TVC

Odds over time

How late will it get to TVC?