Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, OO 501 at 11:40, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 501 SkyWest	DEN 11:40	ACV 13:53	15%	7%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Arcata/Eureka on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Arcata/Eureka is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	3h 34m San Francisco	SFO 21:04 → ACV 22:33UA 765	7h 46m	98%	82%
United Details →	DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367	1h 33m San Francisco	SFO 08:26 → ACV 09:44UA 3925	5h 29m	99%	78%
United Details →	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	3h 16m San Francisco	SFO 16:20 → ACV 17:40UA 419	7h 19m	100%	76%
United Details →	DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506	2h 28m San Francisco	SFO 13:53 → ACV 15:13UA 4715 · flown by SkyWest	6h 30m	99%	72%
United Details →	DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391	57m San Francisco	SFO 10:15 → ACV 11:42UA 4708 · flown by SkyWest	5h 02m	87%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON