tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Portland, leaving 12:02, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 280 United Flight history → DEN 19:07 ANC 22:56 16% 3% 0.5% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 2 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 08:44 → MSP 11:40DL 2877 2h 48m Minneapolis MSP 14:28 → ANC 17:28DL 411 10h 44m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329 2h 55m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 12h 19m 98% 85%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:02 → PDX 13:46AS 684 1h 15m Portland PDX 15:01 → ANC 18:00AS 315 7h 58m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → DEN 10:41 → ORD 14:17AA 2559 2h 37m Chicago ORD 16:54 → ANC 20:34AA 375 11h 53m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → DEN 13:03 → SEA 15:05DL 1358 2h 19m Seattle SEA 17:24 → ANC 20:18DL 2367 9h 15m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → DEN 09:04 → DFW 12:07AA 1523 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:11 → ANC 19:35AA 399 12h 31m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317 3h 47m Seattle SEA 14:29 → ANC 17:13AS 1436 10h 33m 100% 80%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 12:29 → SEA 14:03AS 682 3h 45m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ANC 20:34AS 85 10h 05m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42AS 317 57m Seattle SEA 11:39 → ANC 14:27AS 83 7h 47m 57% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON