Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1003 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	CHS 15:14	9%	2%	0.6%	85%
WN 1125 Southwest	DEN 11:46	CHS 17:01	18%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 07:37 → CHS 08:52DL 5475 · flown by Endeavor	6h 12m	99%	92%
United Details →	DEN 00:09 → EWR 05:42UA 1745	1h 18m Newark	EWR 07:00 → CHS 09:06UA 2355	6h 57m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381	8h 08m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850	8h 16m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:57 → ATL 12:57DL 995	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 15:59 → CHS 17:16DL 2174	7h 19m	100%	88%
American Details →	DEN 12:58 → PHL 18:37AA 2491	3h 09m Philadelphia	PHL 21:46 → CHS 23:35AA 1193	8h 37m	99%	87%
American Details →	DEN 10:51 → CLT 16:07AA 3299	3h 51m Charlotte	CLT 19:58 → CHS 21:12AA 3064	8h 21m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00DL 1129	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 10:30 → CHS 14:15DL 2463	6h 15m	97%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON