Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1863 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1863 DEN 08:50 → ELP 10:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1494 DEN 20:45 → ELP 22:32 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1863 Southwest	DEN 08:50	ELP 10:42	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 2128 United	DEN 11:36	ELP 13:32	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3384 Southwest	DEN 11:11	ELP 13:02	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
F9 2261 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:42	ELP 18:51	14%	4%	0.7%	80%
UA 333 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ELP 21:11	19%	4%	0.5%	66%
WN 1494 Southwest	DEN 20:45	ELP 22:32	22%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON