Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Seattle, leaving 05:58, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 2 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 05:58 → SEA 07:45DL 1731	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	9h 44m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	DEN 17:56 → SEA 19:42AS 615	3h 32m Seattle	SEA 23:14 → FAI 01:54 +1AS 351	9h 58m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	DEN 07:06 → SEA 08:52AS 317	3h 11m Seattle	SEA 12:03 → FAI 14:51AS 230	9h 45m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	DEN 15:17 → SEA 16:36AS 535	2h 08m Seattle	SEA 18:44 → FAI 21:32AS 284	8h 15m	92%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DEN 17:56 → SEA 19:42AS 615	58m Seattle	SEA 20:40 → FAI 23:19AS 349	7h 23m	67%	54%
Alaska Details →	DEN 07:06 → SEA 08:52AS 317	57m Seattle	SEA 09:49 → FAI 12:38AS 381	7h 32m	71%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON