Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: F9 4646 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–20%.

Safest bet that day F9 4646 DEN 06:00 → MCO 11:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 4364 DEN 13:45 → MCO 19:13 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 4646 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MCO 11:47	6%	3%	0.9%	86%
WN 2260 Southwest	DEN 07:29	MCO 12:55	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2292 United Flight history →	DEN 08:10	MCO 13:57	8%	2%	0.7%	89%
WN 1558 Southwest	DEN 00:13	MCO 05:34	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 2354 United Flight history →	DEN 10:10	MCO 16:04	12%	4%	1.2%	85%
UA 259 United Flight history →	DEN 17:52	MCO 23:41	15%	6%	1.0%	78%
UA 501 United Flight history →	DEN 13:48	MCO 19:39	16%	9%	1.2%	73%
F9 2520 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:19	MCO 01:15	17%	9%	1.3%	68%
WN 3659 Southwest	DEN 17:23	MCO 22:46	20%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 3286 Southwest	DEN 11:04	MCO 16:36	20%	5%	1.6%	no record
WN 4634 Southwest	DEN 18:29	MCO 23:41	20%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 4364 Southwest	DEN 13:45	MCO 19:13	22%	8%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON