Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: UA 5438 at 11:15 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day


UA 5438 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:15	MRY 13:10	12%	4%	0.5%	88%
UA 1822 United	DEN 19:27	MRY 21:16	23%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Monterey is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	2h 09m San Francisco	SFO 17:18 → MRY 18:32UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest	6h 07m	97%	83%
United Details →	DEN 08:00 → LAX 09:32UA 1638	3h 33m Los Angeles	LAX 13:05 → MRY 14:31UA 276	7h 31m	100%	83%
American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:02 → MRY 12:03AA 2879	8h 03m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	DEN 11:59 → SEA 13:47AS 682	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 15:22 → MRY 17:43AS 2290 · flown by Horizon	6h 44m	92%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON