Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 1891 at 11:19, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1891 United	DEN 11:19	PNS 15:15	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:07 → PNS 08:27DL 1539	6h 47m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640	6h 15m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:57 → ATL 12:57DL 995	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211	8h 06m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 14:10 → ATL 19:16DL 706	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807	8h 20m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	DEN 06:20 → DAL 09:19WN 1334	2h 01m Dallas	DAL 11:20 → PNS 13:11WN 282	5h 51m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	6h 58m	99%	82%
United Details →	DEN 06:00 → ORD 09:42UA 1377	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 11:03 → PNS 13:24UA 2492	6h 24m	98%	81%
American Details →	DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05AA 2612	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:03 → PNS 10:57AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	4h 57m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON