Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1731 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1731 DEN 06:30 → SEA 08:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4462 DEN 09:14 → SEA 10:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1731 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:30	SEA 08:26	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
F9 9421 Frontier	DEN 23:24	SEA 01:14	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1358 Delta Flight history →	DEN 13:03	SEA 15:05	15%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 1253 United	DEN 09:38	SEA 11:26	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2013 United Flight history →	DEN 15:58	SEA 17:59	18%	3%	0.6%	80%
UA 2058 United	DEN 11:35	SEA 13:18	19%	4%	0.5%	no record
F9 1175 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:03	SEA 15:07	19%	4%	0.7%	81%
UA 2767 United	DEN 20:51	SEA 22:42	20%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2543 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:39	SEA 20:41	20%	3%	0.6%	57%
AS 535 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 16:36	SEA 18:38	22%	4%	0.6%	67%
AS 682 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 12:29	SEA 14:03	22%	3%	0.6%	83%
AS 615 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 20:12	SEA 21:47	24%	3%	0.6%	58%
WN 4800 Southwest	DEN 21:30	SEA 23:06	25%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 888 Southwest	DEN 11:23	SEA 13:03	25%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 4514 Southwest	DEN 16:15	SEA 17:58	26%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 309 Alaska	DEN 18:16	SEA 19:53	28%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 317 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 08:40	SEA 10:42	31%	2%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
WN 4462 Southwest	DEN 09:14	SEA 10:54	33%	2%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON