Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2367 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 2367 DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4785 DEN 15:51 → SFO 17:24 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2367 United Flight history →	DEN 05:15	SFO 06:53	2%	1%	0.6%	96%
UA 2265 United	DEN 06:00	SFO 07:54	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4760 Southwest	DEN 09:26	SFO 10:53	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2391 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SFO 09:18	11%	3%	0.6%	71%
UA 1561 United Flight history →	DEN 11:21	SFO 13:04	11%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 1812 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	SFO 15:09	12%	5%	0.5%	76%
UA 1506 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	SFO 11:25	12%	3%	0.6%	48%
UA 2633 United Flight history →	DEN 15:47	SFO 17:30	12%	5%	0.6%	73%
F9 3439 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	SFO 00:23	13%	6%	0.7%	70%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	DEN 17:54	SFO 19:40	14%	4%	0.6%	68%
F9 1229 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:49	SFO 11:43	15%	4%	0.7%	66%
WN 4691 Southwest	DEN 21:39	SFO 23:06	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2123 United Flight history →	DEN 21:10	SFO 22:56	16%	4%	0.5%	60%
UA 1389 United Flight history →	DEN 19:34	SFO 21:20	18%	4%	0.6%	44%
WN 4785 Southwest	DEN 15:51	SFO 17:24	19%	5%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON