Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 1724 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	BUF 16:05	19%	5%	0.6%	76%
AA 574 American Flight history →	DFW 18:45	BUF 22:50	24%	8%	0.7%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 11:44 → LGA 16:22AA 2327	3h 07m New York	LGA 19:29 → BUF 21:07AA 4521 · flown by Republic	8h 23m	98%	90%
American Details →	DFW 04:47 → CLT 08:21AA 1091	2h 00m Charlotte	CLT 10:21 → BUF 12:05AA 1203	6h 18m	98%	89%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 13:53 → BUF 15:40AA 2442	7h 40m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	7h 35m	99%	86%
American Details →	DFW 07:40 → LGA 12:13AA 1609	3h 39m New York	LGA 15:52 → BUF 17:15AA 843	8h 35m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:35 → LGA 15:10DL 873	1h 02m New York	LGA 16:12 → BUF 17:43DL 5792 · flown by Republic	6h 08m	91%	83%
United Details →	DFW 12:00 → ORD 14:42UA 1401	3h 33m Chicago	ORD 18:15 → BUF 20:55UA 1335	7h 55m	99%	83%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618	48m Washington	DCA 09:51 → BUF 11:27AA 4647 · flown by Republic	5h 25m	90%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON