Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 358 DFW 12:25 → IAD 16:31 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2254 DFW 16:18 → IAD 20:25 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 358 United Flight history →	DFW 12:25	IAD 16:31	8%	3%	0.5%	86%
AA 524 American Flight history →	DFW 10:16	IAD 14:31	8%	3%	0.6%	90%
F9 3208 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:30	IAD 15:42	13%	5%	0.7%	84%
UA 1240 United Flight history →	DFW 17:15	IAD 21:24	13%	4%	0.6%	79%
AA 2254 American	DFW 16:18	IAD 20:25	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON