Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AS 646 at 17:45 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day AS 646 DFW 17:45 → PDX 19:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2298 DFW 21:33 → PDX 23:46 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 646 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 17:45	PDX 19:49	8%	2%	0.7%	82%
AS 638 Alaska	DFW 14:29	PDX 16:32	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 2655 American Flight history →	DFW 08:45	PDX 10:40	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 2496 American Flight history →	DFW 11:16	PDX 13:23	13%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 2028 American Flight history →	DFW 15:04	PDX 17:10	19%	4%	0.7%	51%
AA 685 American Flight history →	DFW 17:15	PDX 19:28	19%	5%	0.7%	53%
AA 2298 American Flight history →	DFW 21:33	PDX 23:46	19%	4%	0.7%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	5h 39m	92%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON