Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 2516 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2516 DFW 07:04 → TPA 10:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2256 DFW 18:25 → TPA 21:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2516 American Flight history →	DFW 07:04	TPA 10:50	9%	2%	1.3%	84%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	DFW 09:48	TPA 13:22	12%	3%	1.8%	76%
AA 1957 American	DFW 12:44	TPA 16:21	16%	5%	1.9%	no record
F9 2402 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 15:17	TPA 19:06	17%	7%	2.7%	74%
AA 2512 American Flight history →	DFW 14:29	TPA 18:04	25%	9%	1.9%	67%
AA 2401 American Flight history →	DFW 17:23	TPA 20:51	28%	9%	2.7%	56%
AA 2256 American Flight history →	DFW 18:25	TPA 21:54	28%	9%	2.7%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON