Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3863 DTW 07:04 → BUF 08:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 978 DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3863 SkyWest	DTW 07:04	BUF 08:19	8%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 3841 SkyWest	DTW 07:12	BUF 08:28	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3848 SkyWest	DTW 10:22	BUF 11:38	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 3870 SkyWest	DTW 14:06	BUF 15:27	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 3847 SkyWest	DTW 14:02	BUF 15:18	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 3856 SkyWest	DTW 17:58	BUF 19:17	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 978 Delta Flight history →	DTW 22:50	BUF 23:58	12%	5%	0.5%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON