Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5117 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 13:08	CHA 14:53	8%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 4894 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 20:16	CHA 21:58	9%	3%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:33 → CHA 12:22DL 1737	6h 05m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 08:38 → CHA 09:36DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	4h 19m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:19DL 2856	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 14:21 → CHA 15:17DL 1684	4h 52m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 13:13 → CHA 14:02DL 3141	6h 42m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → CHA 14:07DL 4925 · flown by Endeavor	5h 42m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 16:50 → CHA 17:46DL 1762	5h 21m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:50 → ATL 18:55DL 1467	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 21:47 → CHA 22:42DL 1059	5h 52m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 19:31 → CHA 20:19DL 1722	5h 20m	100%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON