Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2333 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:29	JAX 10:49	8%	2%	1.9%	89%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:02	JAX 17:27	10%	3%	2.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 06:03 → PHL 07:49AA 5414 · flown by PSA	52m Philadelphia	PHL 08:41 → JAX 11:10AA 1791	5h 07m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → JAX 09:36DL 2326	4h 19m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	5h 43m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	7h 54m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	1h 57m New York	JFK 13:55 → JAX 16:44DL 1035	6h 30m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 16:50 → ATL 18:55DL 1467	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	7h 19m	100%	82%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	2h 57m Charlotte	CLT 10:48 → JAX 12:25AA 1925	6h 25m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:20 → ATL 09:18DL 965	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	6h 25m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON