Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1850 DTW 07:01 → STL 07:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3807 DTW 15:35 → STL 16:04 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1850 Southwest	DTW 07:01	STL 07:45	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 830 Southwest	DTW 06:39	STL 07:10	4%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 2868 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:50	STL 09:31	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 1371 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:28	STL 13:05	7%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 1541 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	STL 20:37	8%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 2822 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:45	STL 17:24	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
WN 3807 Southwest	DTW 15:35	STL 16:04	12%	2%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON