Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


YX 4789 Republic	ECP 13:03	DCA 16:28	13%	3%	1.8%	no record
OH 5641 PSA	ECP 13:33	DCA 17:01	16%	6%	2.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → DCA 12:58DL 1961	5h 58m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	6h 06m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 49m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	5h 59m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 20:55 → DCA 22:48DL 378	7h 01m	99%	82%
American Details →	ECP 07:37 → DFW 10:06AA 4120 · flown by Envoy	1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 22m	94%	76%
United Details →	ECP 14:54 → IAH 17:11UA 4352 · flown by CommuteAir	54m Houston	IAH 18:05 → DCA 22:15UA 1627	6h 21m	84%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON