Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow: OH 5302 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–18%.

Safest bet that day OH 5302 ECP 07:09 → DFW 09:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2052 ECP 15:16 → DFW 17:17 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5302 PSA	ECP 07:09	DFW 09:19	8%	4%	2.3%	no record
AA 4120 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 07:37	DFW 10:06	8%	3%	2.1%	94%
AA 3625 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ECP 12:13	DFW 14:21	11%	2%	2.1%	73%
AA 2052 American	ECP 15:16	DFW 17:17	18%	6%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON