tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, 9E 4988 at 12:30, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
9E 4988 Endeavor ECP 12:30 LGA 16:00 19% 4% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 37m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ECP 07:50 → ATL 10:00DL 1674 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 00m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 6h 38m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:20DL 997 6h 42m 98% 81%
SouthwestDetails → ECP 07:57 → DAL 10:07WN 312 2h 28m Dallas DAL 12:35 → LGA 16:55WN 4418 7h 58m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → ECP 07:37 → DFW 10:06AA 4120 · flown by Envoy 1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:52 → LGA 16:33AA 2327 7h 56m 94% 68%
AmericanDetails → ECP 11:59 → DFW 14:14AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:49 → LGA 21:29AA 2513 8h 30m 99% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON