Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, YX 3497 at 14:12, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YX 3497 Republic	ECP 14:12	ORD 16:58	16%	4%	2.1%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 17:03 → ATL 19:21DL 3094	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 50m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:05 → ATL 09:16DL 1674	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477	7h 09m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 10:53 → ORD 12:05DL 2894	6h 05m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:14 → ATL 13:26DL 3045	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738	5h 58m	97%	81%
United Details →	ECP 14:53 → IAH 17:10UA 4352 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 19m Houston	IAH 20:29 → ORD 23:13UA 1752	8h 20m	98%	80%
American Details →	ECP 07:36 → DFW 10:05AA 4120 · flown by Envoy	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:41 → ORD 15:14AA 1618	7h 38m	94%	76%
United Details →	ECP 11:45 → IAH 13:57UA 4851 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 16m Houston	IAH 17:13 → ORD 19:57UA 2786	8h 12m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	ECP 14:47 → ATL 17:00DL 2823	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 19:13 → ORD 20:24DL 1139	5h 37m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON