tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1741 Delta Flight history → ELP 06:00 ATL 11:10 5% 2% 0.6% 92%
DL 1002 Delta Flight history → ELP 14:25 ATL 19:42 8% 2% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of El Paso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ELP 07:00 → DEN 08:53UA 724 1h 15m Denver DEN 10:08 → ATL 15:20UA 2806 6h 20m 94% 85%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:05 → DFW 10:00AA 2029 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:11 → ATL 15:36AA 1008 6h 31m 95% 83%
AmericanDetails → ELP 07:45 → ORD 11:51AA 4006 · flown by Envoy 1h 27m Chicago ORD 13:18 → ATL 16:20AA 616 6h 35m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → ELP 12:35 → IAH 15:40UA 4002 · flown by Mesa 2h 31m Houston IAH 18:11 → ATL 21:29UA 2240 6h 54m 93% 78%
UnitedDetails → ELP 05:45 → IAH 08:46UA 6303 · flown by Mesa 3h 09m Houston IAH 11:55 → ATL 15:16UA 4079 · flown by Mesa 7h 31m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → ELP 12:11 → PHX 12:55AA 4889 · flown by SkyWest 3h 16m Phoenix PHX 16:11 → ATL 22:50AA 2391 8h 39m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → ELP 10:05 → DFW 12:59AA 1365 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:59 → ATL 19:11AA 2403 7h 06m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → ELP 14:32 → DEN 16:38UA 1728 1h 10m Denver DEN 17:48 → ATL 22:57UA 1305 6h 25m 90% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON