Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 25%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: DL 4124 at 17:45, 15%.

Safest bet that day DL 4124 EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest QX 2065 EUG 10:06 → SEA 11:18 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Weather 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4124 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 17:45	SEA 19:04	15%	7%	0.7%	91%
OO 3128 SkyWest	EUG 20:48	SEA 22:11	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 3013 SkyWest	EUG 14:59	SEA 16:29	19%	10%	0.7%	no record
DL 4128 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 06:15	SEA 07:38	20%	9%	1.6%	94%worse than usual
OO 4002 SkyWest	EUG 12:54	SEA 14:16	23%	10%	0.7%	no record
QX 2354 Horizon	EUG 06:03	SEA 07:18	25%	7%	4.4%	no record
QX 2142 Horizon	EUG 06:07	SEA 07:22	25%	7%	4.4%	no record
AS 2188 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	EUG 13:23	SEA 14:40	33%	10%	1.3%	91%worse than usual
QX 2177 Horizon	EUG 09:54	SEA 11:09	36%	11%	1.9%	no record
QX 2065 Horizon	EUG 10:06	SEA 11:18	37%	14%	1.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON