Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 3148 at 14:47, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3148 Southwest	EUG 14:47	SJC 16:19	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 35m	99%	91%
Alaska Details →	EUG 05:20 → PDX 06:06AS 2053 · flown by Horizon	1h 09m Portland	PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → SJC 22:48DL 3956 · flown by SkyWest	5h 03m	94%	86%
Alaska Details →	EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:51AS 3041 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m Portland	PDX 20:43 → SJC 22:24AS 755	6h 24m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	EUG 17:43 → SEA 18:52AS 2339 · flown by Horizon	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 20:57 → SJC 22:51AS 1444	5h 08m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest	52m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	4h 40m	82%	73%
Alaska Details →	EUG 09:45 → SEA 10:53AS 2073 · flown by Horizon	2h 58m Seattle	SEA 13:51 → SJC 16:00AS 657	6h 15m	100%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON