tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–5% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1767 Southwest EUG 05:39 SMF 07:08 4% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 1899 Southwest EUG 06:49 SMF 08:18 5% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EUG 16:43 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 3h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 7h 01m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3708 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 16m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → EUG 17:45 → SEA 19:04DL 4124 · flown by SkyWest 1h 21m Seattle SEA 20:25 → SMF 22:31DL 4131 · flown by SkyWest 4h 46m 93% 85%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:51AS 3041 · flown by SkyWest 1h 08m Portland PDX 17:59 → SMF 19:32AS 1500 3h 32m 94% 82%
DeltaDetails → EUG 06:15 → SEA 07:38DL 4128 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Seattle SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 6h 02m 96% 81%
AmericanDetails → EUG 06:30 → PHX 09:09AA 4048 · flown by Envoy 52m Phoenix PHX 10:01 → SMF 12:13AA 1677 5h 43m 82% 72%
AlaskaDetails → EUG 13:23 → SEA 14:40AS 2188 · flown by Horizon 2h 39m Seattle SEA 17:19 → SMF 19:00AS 681 5h 37m 100% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON