Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Charlotte, leaving 04:55, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 04:55 → CLT 06:53AA 1113	3h 28m Charlotte	CLT 10:21 → BUF 12:05AA 1203	7h 10m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	7h 33m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573	3h 59m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978	7h 08m	98%	86%
United Details →	EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 14:07 → BUF 16:49UA 580	7h 29m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	55m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384	5h 11m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050	8h 10m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 15:22 → BUF 18:24DL 1749	6h 37m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334	8h 38m	98%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON