Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 18:45, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 297 United Flight history →	EWR 07:39	BZN 10:26	8%	2%	0.7%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:01 → BZN 12:35DL 2946	8h 20m	98%	93%
United Details →	EWR 07:51 → DEN 10:15UA 1758	1h 44m Denver	DEN 11:59 → BZN 13:48UA 741	7h 57m	100%	92%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → ORD 07:42UA 530	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224	7h 44m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → BZN 16:26DL 406	9h 56m	99%	91%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	2h 04m Charlotte	CLT 10:05 → BZN 12:30AA 2415	8h 30m	98%	91%
American Details →	EWR 06:50 → ORD 08:34AA 3027	2h 42m Chicago	ORD 11:16 → BZN 13:40AA 1080	8h 50m	99%	91%
American Details →	EWR 08:00 → DFW 10:51AA 1303	2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:29 → BZN 15:34AA 947	9h 34m	97%	86%
United Details →	EWR 10:00 → DEN 12:18UA 2455	1h 26m Denver	DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513	7h 33m	95%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON