Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 4191 at 09:07, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 4191 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	EWR 09:07	CAE 11:11	14%	3%	1.2%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:00 → CAE 12:59DL 2944	5h 54m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → CAE 15:06DL 3193	6h 36m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 10:11 → CAE 11:19DL 9972	5h 19m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 16:15 → CAE 17:21DL 3032	6h 50m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	EWR 13:29 → ATL 16:00DL 2401	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → CAE 20:01DL 2193	6h 32m	97%	84%
American Details →	EWR 04:51 → CLT 06:47AA 1113	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 08:58 → CAE 09:57AA 5956 · flown by Piedmont	5h 06m	98%	83%
American Details →	EWR 05:51 → DFW 08:40AA 2728	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:52 → CAE 13:19AA 5437 · flown by PSA	7h 28m	97%	82%
American Details →	EWR 10:40 → ORD 12:25AA 3170	56m Chicago	ORD 13:21 → CAE 16:16AA 4275 · flown by Envoy	5h 36m	90%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON