Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 788 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest UA 1863 EWR 18:50 → MCO 21:34 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	5%	1%	1.0%	96%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:08	MCO 08:51	6%	2%	1.8%	90%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:46	MCO 10:47	6%	2%	1.0%	98%
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 06:00	MCO 08:39	9%	3%	1.3%	83%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:08	MCO 11:45	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	11%	3%	1.2%	87%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	13%	2%	1.0%	76%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 13:03	MCO 15:54	16%	5%	1.3%	81%
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	18%	9%	1.6%	77%
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:41	MCO 16:27	19%	6%	2.1%	75%
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:30	MCO 23:32	20%	8%	1.8%	73%
UA 2345 United	EWR 14:15	MCO 17:15	22%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:24	MCO 18:22	27%	8%	1.6%	79%
UA 1863 United	EWR 18:50	MCO 21:34	27%	9%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON