Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 3650 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 13:29	MEM 15:25	7%	2%	0.7%	83%
UA 3563 United flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 21:23	MEM 23:30	10%	3%	0.8%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EWR 07:05 → ATL 09:20DL 1673	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 27m	99%	91%
American Details →	EWR 17:21 → ORD 18:49AA 1691	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	7h 57m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 08:30 → ATL 10:51DL 2365	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → MEM 14:11DL 733	6h 41m	98%	89%
American Details →	EWR 04:52 → CLT 06:49AA 1113	3h 29m Charlotte	CLT 10:18 → MEM 11:14AA 1354	7h 22m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 32m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 16:37 → MEM 17:02DL 1681	7h 31m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → DTW 07:50DL 2596	57m Detroit	DTW 08:47 → MEM 09:44DL 1627	4h 44m	95%	89%
American Details →	EWR 06:00 → CLT 08:01AA 2505	2h 14m Charlotte	CLT 10:15 → MEM 10:55AA 1790	5h 55m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON