Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1196 at 05:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1196 EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 3016 EWR 17:01 → MIA 20:08 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1196 American Flight history →	EWR 05:31	MIA 08:45	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
UA 1135 United	EWR 07:01	MIA 10:11	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 1152 American Flight history →	EWR 08:00	MIA 11:10	7%	2%	0.8%	93%
UA 2785 United Flight history →	EWR 08:55	MIA 12:23	8%	2%	0.7%	97%
UA 2295 United Flight history →	EWR 11:31	MIA 14:38	13%	4%	0.8%	81%
UA 791 United	EWR 20:39	MIA 23:55	20%	9%	1.3%	no record
UA 1498 United	EWR 15:46	MIA 19:02	30%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 3016 American	EWR 17:01	MIA 20:08	33%	12%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON