tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Sep 29, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1196 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

AA 1196 · EWR → MIA

departs 5:31 AM ET · arrives 8:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 90h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Tuesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
5% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 6.2d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to MIA?

  1. On time or early
    93%
  2. 15–30 min late
    2%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    1%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    <1%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.