tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:30 am at Newark)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3712 Republic EWR 08:47 MSN 10:27 10% 3% 0.4% no record
UA 3620 United flown by Republic Flight history → EWR 18:59 MSN 20:39 13% 3% 0.9% 80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Newark). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → EWR 09:30 → BOS 10:54DL 5764 · flown by Republic 2h 14m Boston BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic 6h 33m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → EWR 07:59 → ORD 09:43UA 2488 2h 55m Chicago ORD 12:38 → MSN 13:39UA 2349 6h 40m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 13:00 → DTW 14:58DL 2577 1h 52m Detroit DTW 16:50 → MSN 17:15DL 5245 · flown by Endeavor 5h 15m 95% 88%
DeltaDetails → EWR 10:31 → ATL 12:53DL 2325 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSN 16:28DL 2599 6h 57m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → EWR 09:20 → ORD 11:04UA 2290 3h 17m Chicago ORD 14:21 → MSN 15:24UA 1595 7h 04m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681 5h 22m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144 8h 17m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:00 → MSP 17:08DL 2895 2h 43m Minneapolis MSP 19:51 → MSN 20:57DL 1739 6h 57m 96% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON