Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1330 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 1330 EWR 08:50 → SEA 11:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 296 EWR 18:14 → SEA 20:54 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1330 United Flight history →	EWR 08:50	SEA 11:57	15%	3%	0.5%	79%
AS 373 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 09:10	SEA 11:53	15%	2%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
UA 1814 United	EWR 15:26	SEA 18:28	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 299 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 07:25	SEA 10:35	20%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 2693 United	EWR 18:36	SEA 21:18	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 296 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 18:14	SEA 20:54	27%	4%	0.8%	47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 13m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	52m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 44m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	EWR 09:55 → DTW 11:43DL 2566	46m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	7h 34m	91%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON