Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: American via Charlotte, leaving 04:54, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	EWR 04:54 → CLT 06:51AA 1113	2h 02m Charlotte	CLT 08:53 → STT 12:49AA 2684	7h 55m	96%	84%
American Details →	EWR 05:31 → MIA 08:45AA 1196	1h 16m Miami	MIA 10:01 → STT 13:00AA 943	7h 29m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	EWR 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 2353	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:47DL 1899	7h 47m	98%	78%
American Details →	EWR 08:00 → MIA 11:10AA 1152	56m Miami	MIA 12:06 → STT 15:04AA 1391	7h 04m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON