Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Seattle, leaving 02:09, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Fairbanks). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FAI 02:09 → SEA 06:56DL 2408	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 10:35 → ORD 16:43DL 637	11h 34m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	FAI 05:31 → SEA 10:12AS 210	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 11:56 → ORD 17:54AS 579	9h 23m	94%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON