Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4978 FAT 09:33 → PHX 11:25 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 668 FAT 16:20 → PHX 18:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4978 SkyWest	FAT 09:33	PHX 11:25	9%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 6275 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:15	PHX 08:01	10%	5%	0.5%	86%
AA 2396 American Flight history →	FAT 13:11	PHX 15:03	15%	8%	0.6%	82%
AA 668 American	FAT 16:20	PHX 18:13	16%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON