Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4415 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4415 FAT 06:29 → SAN 07:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4087 FAT 15:57 → SAN 17:13 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4415 Southwest	FAT 06:29	SAN 07:53	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 3402 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:00	SAN 07:24	9%	4%	0.8%	92%
OO 3020 SkyWest	FAT 09:12	SAN 10:33	13%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 11:32	SAN 13:01	16%	8%	0.7%	74%
OO 812 SkyWest	FAT 16:46	SAN 18:06	19%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 4087 Southwest	FAT 15:57	SAN 17:13	22%	6%	0.5%	no record
AS 2210 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAT 10:42	SAN 11:58	53%	12%	1.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON