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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Buffalo on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:11DL 1168 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 48m 99% 91%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 07:01 → JFK 10:00B6 302 3h 29m New York JFK 13:29 → BUF 14:59B6 2902 7h 58m 100% 91%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:03 → CLT 08:07AA 1474 2h 14m Charlotte CLT 10:21 → BUF 12:05AA 1203 6h 02m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:29 → LGA 14:24DL 2465 1h 48m New York LGA 16:12 → BUF 17:43DL 5792 · flown by Republic 6h 14m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → FLL 16:40 → DTW 19:46DL 1294 3h 04m Detroit DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978 7h 18m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:31 → ATL 13:28DL 1334 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 7h 10m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → FLL 09:19 → CLT 11:21AA 2087 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 13:53 → BUF 15:40AA 2442 6h 21m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → FLL 16:46 → ATL 18:47DL 1413 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 7h 13m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON